How are Visa Bulletin predictions calculated?

Visa Bulletin predictions are calculated by analyzing historical monthly movement velocity across 23+ past bulletins, statutory annual visa caps set by Congress (140,000 employment-based and 226,000 family-sponsored), USCIS I-485 filing receipts, and National Visa Center (NVC) documentarily qualified backlogs.

Which month of the year sees the biggest Visa Bulletin advancement?

Historically, the October Visa Bulletin experiences the most significant forward movement because October marks the start of the federal government's new fiscal year (FY), releasing an entire fresh annual quota of immigrant visa numbers.

Why do Visa Bulletin dates freeze or retrogress during the summer?

As the federal fiscal year approaches its conclusion on September 30th, annual per-country and category quotas become fully exhausted. To prevent issuing more green cards than permitted by federal law, the State Department slows movement, retrogresses cutoff dates, or sets categories to 'Unavailable (U)'.

What is the future outlook for EB-2 and EB-3 India?

While the October fiscal year reset reopens backlogged categories with active cutoff dates, heavy pre-existing queues from previous years mean progression remains steady and measured rather than massive multi-year leaps.

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Visa Bulletin Predictions & Movement Forecast

Data-driven analysis of U.S. green card priority date trends, fiscal year quota cycles, retrogression risks, and category-by-category projections.

Interactive Prediction Tool

Calculate Your Priority Date Wait Time

Select your visa category, country of birth, and enter your priority date to generate custom timeline projections, movement velocity, and next steps based on 23 months of official State Department bulletin data.

Priority Date & Wait Time Calculator

Enter your priority date and category to determine whether you can file your green card application.

Visa Category

Country of Birth

Priority Date

Current Location

Inside the United States (Adjustment of Status - Chart B)Outside the United States (Consular Processing - Chart A)

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Category Forecast Matrix

Official State Department cutoffs • Verified 12-month velocity

September 2026 Official Data

Category	Current Cutoff	Projected Movement	Outlook & Filing Guidance
EB-1 Worldwide (ROW)	Current (C) Final Action	Immediate / No Wait Current	Continuously Current throughout the fiscal year. Eligible for concurrent Form I-140 and Form I-485 filing.
EB-1 India Track cutoff→	Oct 15, 2022 Final Action	+1 – 3 mos / quarter Measured Pace	Steady autumn advance (+8.0 mo net in FY26); high I-140 demand keeps pace measured. Watch Chart B dates for early filing windows.
EB-1 China Track cutoff→	Jul 1, 2023 Final Action	+1 – 2 mos / quarter Measured Pace	Gradual progression (+6.3 mo in FY26); constrained by the 7% statutory per-country cap. Spousal cross-chargeability bypasses backlog.
EB-2 Worldwide (ROW)	Current (C) Final Action	Immediate / No Wait Current	Advanced to Current; file promptly before late-fiscal-year demand calibrations. Concurrent I-140/I-485 filing available.
EB-2 India Track cutoff→	Unavailable (U) Final Action	+1 – 3 wks / month Reopening Oct	Quota fully utilized for late FY26; reopens with active cutoffs upon October fiscal reset. Maintain lawful underlying non-immigrant status.
EB-2 China Track cutoff→	Sep 1, 2021 Final Action	+1 – 2 mos / quarter Measured Pace	Paced movement across late 2021 dates (+8.5 mo in FY26); supported by spillover. Finalize PERM/I-140 approvals and prepare I-693.
EB-3 Worldwide (ROW)	Sep 1, 2024 Final Action	+1 – 2 mos / quarter Advancing	Strong forward recovery (+17.0 mo in FY26); approaching recent priority dates. Chart B is Current for early packet preparation.
EB-3 India Track cutoff→	Jan 1, 2014 Final Action	+1 – 3 wks / month Heavy Backlog	Heavy EB-2 interfiling downgrades (+7.3 mo in FY26); steady small steps. Consult attorney on EB-2/EB-3 interfiling.
EB-3 China Track cutoff→	Jan 1, 2022 Final Action	+2 – 4 wks / month Steady Progress	Active advancement across 7 months in FY26 (+13.0 mo net); consistent forward momentum. Monitor USCIS monthly filing chart selection.
EB-5 RIA Set-Asides	Current (C) Final Action	Immediate / No Wait Current	Statutory 32% reserved pool remains Current for ALL countries (including India & China). Concurrent Form I-526E and Form I-485 permitted.
EB-5 Unreserved (China & India)	China: Dec 1, 2016 India: Unavailable (U) Final Action	Slow / Stagnant Backlogged	Pre-RIA unreserved pool faces multi-year backlogs for India and China; ROW is Current. New investors should select RIA set-aside projects.

Understanding the Annual Visa Bulletin Cycle

Visa Bulletin movement is not random. It follows an annual 3-phase cycle dictated by the federal fiscal calendar (October 1 to September 30). Knowing where we are in the cycle tells you what to expect:

Phase 1: Oct – Dec

The October Quota Surge

Congress releases a fresh annual quota of 140,000+ employment visas and 226,000 family visas. Unavailable categories reopen and post the largest forward jumps of the year.

Phase 2: Jan – May

Mid-Year Calibration

USCIS and the State Department monitor actual Form I-485 filing receipts. Priority dates advance at a steady, measured pace of 1 to 4 weeks per month.

Phase 3: Jun – Sep

Summer Exhaustion & Freezes

As annual country and category quotas near 100% capacity, advancement slows down or stops completely. High-demand categories may retrogress or become "Unavailable (U)".

Detailed Category Forecasts & Strategic Advice

EB-1: Priority Workers

Track EB-1 India →

Rest of World / Mexico / Philippines: Projected to remain continuously Current (C).

India & China: High volume from multinational managers (EB-1C) and porting from EB-2 creates ongoing backlogs. Expect moderate quarterly movement in Q1/Q2, with slower pacing in summer.

EB-2: Advanced Degrees

Track EB-2 India →

China: Stable forward progression across 2021–2022 priority dates.

India: Reopens upon the October fiscal reset with active cutoffs, followed by measured increments of 5 to 15 days per bulletin.

EB-3: Skilled Workers

Track EB-3 India →

Rest of World: Hovering near recent years, with quarterly calibrations.

India & China: Highly reactive to interfiling (downgrading/upgrading between EB-2 and EB-3). Pacing expected at 1 to 3 weeks per month.

EB-5: Immigrant Investors

Calculator →

Set-Asides (Rural 20%, High Unemp 10%, Infra 2%): Remain CURRENT for all countries (including India and China), enabling concurrent I-526E and I-485 filings.

Unreserved: Subject to country backlogs for China and India.

Core Factors Driving Visa Bulletin Predictions

1. Statutory Per-Country Ceilings

No single country of chargeability may receive more than 7% of the annual visa allocation, bottlenecking high-demand nations.

2. USCIS Chart Selection (Chart A vs B)

When USCIS opens Chart B (Dates for Filing), a surge of I-485 applications is locked into the processing pipeline.

3. Category Spillover Flow

Unused numbers in higher preference categories (like EB-1) roll over into lower tiers (EB-2, then EB-3) per statutory formula.

4. I-140 & PERM Processing Speeds

The speed at which the Department of Labor and USCIS approve underlying petitions determines the volume of new contenders.

Frequently Asked Questions: Visa Bulletin Predictions

How accurate are Visa Bulletin predictions?

Mathematical models provide reliable planning ranges based on historical velocity and quota limits. However, actual monthly bulletin dates are finalized by real-time inventory at USCIS and the Department of State. Use predictions as strategic guidance rather than guarantees.

When is the official Visa Bulletin released each month?

The Department of State typically publishes the upcoming month's Visa Bulletin between the 8th and 15th of the preceding month (for example, the October bulletin is released in mid-September).

What should I do if my priority date is projected to become current?

Begin assembling your civil documents (birth and marriage certificates with certified translations) and schedule your Form I-693 immigration medical examination so your Form I-485 packet is ready to mail the moment your window opens.