優先日の待ち時間を計算
ビザカテゴリと出生国を選択し、優先日を入力すると、23ヶ月分の国務省公式データに基づく予測タイムラインを瞬時に算出します。
優先日・待機時間計算機
優先日とビザカテゴリを入力して、グリーンカードの申請が可能かどうかを確認します。
カテゴリ別予測マトリクス
Official State Department cutoffs • Verified 12-month velocity
| カテゴリ | 現在の締切日 | 予想進行ペース | 申請アドバイス |
|---|---|---|---|
EB-1 Worldwide (ROW) | Current (C) Final Action | Immediate / No Wait Current | Continuously Current throughout the fiscal year. Eligible for concurrent Form I-140 and Form I-485 filing. |
EB-1 India Track cutoff→ | Oct 15, 2022 Final Action | +1 – 3 mos / quarter Measured Pace | Steady autumn advance (+8.0 mo net in FY26); high I-140 demand keeps pace measured. Watch Chart B dates for early filing windows. |
EB-1 China Track cutoff→ | Jul 1, 2023 Final Action | +1 – 2 mos / quarter Measured Pace | Gradual progression (+6.3 mo in FY26); constrained by the 7% statutory per-country cap. Spousal cross-chargeability bypasses backlog. |
EB-2 Worldwide (ROW) | Current (C) Final Action | Immediate / No Wait Current | Advanced to Current; file promptly before late-fiscal-year demand calibrations. Concurrent I-140/I-485 filing available. |
EB-2 India Track cutoff→ | Unavailable (U) Final Action | +1 – 3 wks / month Reopening Oct | Quota fully utilized for late FY26; reopens with active cutoffs upon October fiscal reset. Maintain lawful underlying non-immigrant status. |
EB-2 China Track cutoff→ | Sep 1, 2021 Final Action | +1 – 2 mos / quarter Measured Pace | Paced movement across late 2021 dates (+8.5 mo in FY26); supported by spillover. Finalize PERM/I-140 approvals and prepare I-693. |
EB-3 Worldwide (ROW) | Sep 1, 2024 Final Action | +1 – 2 mos / quarter Advancing | Strong forward recovery (+17.0 mo in FY26); approaching recent priority dates. Chart B is Current for early packet preparation. |
EB-3 India Track cutoff→ | Jan 1, 2014 Final Action | +1 – 3 wks / month Heavy Backlog | Heavy EB-2 interfiling downgrades (+7.3 mo in FY26); steady small steps. Consult attorney on EB-2/EB-3 interfiling. |
EB-3 China Track cutoff→ | Jan 1, 2022 Final Action | +2 – 4 wks / month Steady Progress | Active advancement across 7 months in FY26 (+13.0 mo net); consistent forward momentum. Monitor USCIS monthly filing chart selection. |
EB-5 RIA Set-Asides | Current (C) Final Action | Immediate / No Wait Current | Statutory 32% reserved pool remains Current for ALL countries (including India & China). Concurrent Form I-526E and Form I-485 permitted. |
EB-5 Unreserved (China & India) | China: Dec 1, 2016 India: Unavailable (U) | Slow / Stagnant Backlogged | Pre-RIA unreserved pool faces multi-year backlogs for India and China; ROW is Current. New investors should select RIA set-aside projects. |
ビザ速報の年間サイクルを理解する
ビザ速報の動きはランダムではなく、米国の連邦会計年度（10月1日〜翌年9月30日）に基づく3段階の年間サイクルに従います：
10月の新規発給枠リセット
議会により就労ビザ14万件超、家族ビザ22.6万件の枠が解放され、凍結されていた枠が再開し年間最大の前進を見せます。
年度中盤の調整期間
移民局（USCIS）と国務省がI-485提出状況を確認しながら、月あたり1〜4週間の着実なペースで日付を進めます。
夏季の配分数上限と凍結
年間発給上限に近づくにつれ進行が停滞し、一部の高需要カテゴリでは後退やUnavailable（利用不可）が発生します。
カテゴリ別詳細予測と申請戦略
EB-1: Priority Workers
Track EB-1 India →Rest of World / Mexico / Philippines: Projected to remain continuously Current (C).
India & China: High volume from multinational managers (EB-1C) and porting from EB-2 creates ongoing backlogs. Expect moderate quarterly movement in Q1/Q2, with slower pacing in summer.
EB-2: Advanced Degrees
Track EB-2 India →China: Stable forward progression across 2021–2022 priority dates.
India: Reopens upon the October fiscal reset with active cutoffs, followed by measured increments of 5 to 15 days per bulletin.
EB-3: Skilled Workers
Track EB-3 India →Rest of World: Hovering near recent years, with quarterly calibrations.
India & China: Highly reactive to interfiling (downgrading/upgrading between EB-2 and EB-3). Pacing expected at 1 to 3 weeks per month.
EB-5: Immigrant Investors
Calculator →Set-Asides (Rural 20%, High Unemp 10%, Infra 2%): Remain CURRENT for all countries (including India and China), enabling concurrent I-526E and I-485 filings.
Unreserved: Subject to country backlogs for China and India.
ビザ速報予測を左右する主な要因
1. Statutory Per-Country Ceilings
No single country of chargeability may receive more than 7% of the annual visa allocation, bottlenecking high-demand nations.
2. USCIS Chart Selection (Chart A vs B)
When USCIS opens Chart B (Dates for Filing), a surge of I-485 applications is locked into the processing pipeline.
3. Category Spillover Flow
Unused numbers in higher preference categories (like EB-1) roll over into lower tiers (EB-2, then EB-3) per statutory formula.
4. I-140 & PERM Processing Speeds
The speed at which the Department of Labor and USCIS approve underlying petitions determines the volume of new contenders.
よくある質問：ビザ速報の予測
How accurate are Visa Bulletin predictions?
Mathematical models provide reliable planning ranges based on historical velocity and quota limits. However, actual monthly bulletin dates are finalized by real-time inventory at USCIS and the Department of State. Use predictions as strategic guidance rather than guarantees.
When is the official Visa Bulletin released each month?
The Department of State typically publishes the upcoming month's Visa Bulletin between the 8th and 15th of the preceding month (for example, the October bulletin is released in mid-September).
What should I do if my priority date is projected to become current?
Begin assembling your civil documents (birth and marriage certificates with certified translations) and schedule your Form I-693 immigration medical examination so your Form I-485 packet is ready to mail the moment your window opens.